Saturday, December 13, 2014

TWTR IPO


Twitter made its debut as an IPO in the NY Stock Market under the symbol $TWTR, the entry to it was extremely risky, anything could happen since as an IPO there is no previous performance history, so whatever the numbers are, there is no correlation with a previous experience with the stock.  The chart above (courtesy of TradingView.com)  displays its performance on a minute by minute basis as it was put to the market on its first day of trading.  Several interesting facts come to my attention.

There is an initial rally that started right at the open, it made the price jump from 45 to 50 in 15 minutes, it means 11% in 15 minutes.  It then dropped to 44.  That was not short selling, since an IPO can't be short sold right of the bat. It was just pure speculation from the initial move. A similar strategy used in penny stocks, a huge peak of greed followed by a drop. Those who win are the very first initial buyers. There is no way to beat that manually, those are algos in action.   

Personally I don't like to trade IPO's, after the Facebook ($FB) experience on its IPO it's better to wait and see, because you'll never know if the initial offering price is overvalued. It is better and safer to wait on the sidelines and see where the trend is going after having confirmation of the indicators once they're able to gather enough data history.

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