Sunday, March 29, 2020

COVID-19 Worldwide and top countries

This chart shows the the confirmed and recovered cases and the number of deaths after the COVID-19, it shows the cases globally and it breaks down the detail of the countries with the most cases reported.

We see a flattening curve for China, and an alarming rise in the case of the USA, which became the epicenter now. What is alarming is the acceleration curve, it is growing at an exponential rate. On top of that the number of recovered cases the US is at the bottom.

Let's remember, back in 2018 Trump disbanded the NSC pandemic unit, and now we see the consequences. Unfortunately Trump ignored the advice from the science and the risks of a pandemic like the one we're living now. The numbers speak for themselves, there is not enough equipment and prevention to face this threat, the US is ramping up at a very high speed, the US has the least recovered cases and the death toll is on the rise. Trump reacted just because the stock market crashed as a consequence of the inaction and indifference from this administration, at that time Trump tried to manipulate the markets by broadcasting false and misleading statements the damage was already done. The old saying applied, the market is always right, the market assessed the situation and said, this is going to hurt the foundation of the economy and it will take time to recover, so the market cashed out and it was when Donald Trump reacted.

This is not about politics, we see numbers here, but these numbers are people who are struggling, we can't take the time back to revert mistakes like the one Trump did by dismantling the pandemic unit created by Obama. We have to be resilient, proactive, careful and mindful and endure this crisis with the resources we have now and do the best we can.

Do the best you can to keep healthy.

This chart was elaborated using the TradingView data and scripting resources.

Friday, March 27, 2020

COVID-19 Major cases as of 27/March/2020

This is a summary of the COVID-19 cases, this summary shows the total cases reported worldwide, the recovered cases and the deaths due to this pandemia. Then it shows a country by country number and it can be compared how each country has managed the crisis.

World 529,591
USA 83,836
China 81,782
Italy 80,589
Spain 57,786
Germany 43,938
Iran 29,406
Japan 1,387

  • From this top country list, we can draw some initial observations, first the rate at which USA has grown in cases is overwhelming, in this list, this is the only country where the number of deaths have surpassed the number of recovered cases.
    China has already flattened the reported cases and it has increased the number of recovered cases.
    Italy has a step curve, but with a lower acceleration as that of the USA.
    Japan has not reported as many cases as the other countries. The Olympic games were compromised anyway, but if we compare it with any of the other countries in the list, it has the lowest number of cases and deaths . Draw your own conclusions.

The USA case is a separate animal, President Barack Obama created the pandemic preparedness office at the National Security Council in 2016, whose goals were to detect, prepare for a pandemia and mitigate it. This council was disbanded by Trump, now we see the consequences of that decision, it's pretty much like playing a soccer match with no defense and no goalkeeper. As long as the ball keeps playing away from the goalie, we're good, when the ball enters our side we're defenseless and it's game over. Trump ignored the signs, belittled this pandemia and even called it a hoax. We see it wasn't and he reacted until the market crashed and the problem had already gone way too far of reach.

This analysis includes a study that measures the mortality rate and the recovery rate. 4.5% deaths vs 23.1% recovery. There are extreme cases like in Italy where the mortality rate reached 10%, and other cases like in China, where the recovery rate is at 90.2% and the death rate is at 4.0%.

Trump will have to deal with the consequences of his decisions, in the meantime, we all have to keep healthy. Follow the instructions and guidelines from the health organizations, don't disseminate rumors, keep ourselves in a clean environment, be thoughtful, remember that hoarding food and toilet paper means someone who desperately needs food and paper will not receive it, and hoarding will only increase the prices of basic products and at the end we all will hurt ourselves.

The economic consequences of decisions that neglect what science says will be devastating.

I thank the TradingView team for providing the numbers and the tools to display and analyze the COVID-19 data.

Friday, March 13, 2020

Bitcoin in major trend support test

The previous analysis spotted a consolidation triangle. This one didn't gain enough momentum to break the upside and it hit hard with the upper resistance triangle, both from the short term trend and the long term trend. This made this market to overreact and dump massively until it reached the lower trend support. There is a bounce here that pushed the closing level inside the main consolidation triangle. At this point it can retest the main support level and if this holds an attempt to reach the O.5 Fib retracement is feasible.

There have been periods when BTC is positively correlated with the market, and this is the case. The massive selloff in the stock market spooked the BTC market as well. I expect a recovery rally in the stock market, so as long as the correlation persists here too, there will be A recovery rally that will keep BTC inside the major consolidation triangle.

An important note, all indicators are pointing south, basically momentum, bollinger bands , and minor trend, except that of the main trend. I will go with it as long as it reads green.

Thursday, March 12, 2020

Trump's Rally, a hot air bubble in the middle of the Perfect Storm

First and foremost this is not about politics, but about finding numbers and facts. The recent meltdown has wiped off $6T in just four weeks, if we remember what happened in 2008, back then the Dow Jones lost -7,700 points from top to bottom in 17 months, and wiped off $6.9T in Market value. The two bar patterns in the chart show the comparison between Trump's meltdown and the 2008 meltdown. What we have just witnessed is a fast motion video of the 2008 meltdown.

The stock market is almost at the levels it had at the end of the Obama administration. Usually the presidents have left with a positive market, except for Bush, Cater and Nixon.

Again, this is not about politics but about numbers and facts. The following is a table showing the stock market performance with the latest presidents since Nixon Ordered by performance.

Clinton : 228.9%
Obama : 148.3%
Reagan 147.3%
Bush Sr. : 41.3%
Ford : 40.6%
Trump : 6.7%
Carter : -0.7%
Bush Jr : -26.5
Nixon : -28.3%

The best performers were during the Clinton, Obama and Reagan administrations, and the worst were during Nixon and Bush Jr.


I will go with the old saying "The Market Is Always Right". The market has talked and the market says the way the Corona virus and the overall conditions are not suitable to keep the lines and it decided to cash out. Will it come back? or will it keep on falling? The technical indicators are showing areas below the trend support, which usually means there could be a recovery rally after a short covering and short term swing traders. Afterwards depending on what the market assesses it will either decide to test the all time high, or it will fail resistance and we'll technically be in a Bear Market.

There have been a series of unfortunate events, the trade wars hit hard the US Steel, Aluminum , and agriculture sectors. There has been a slow down in the Oil market, which signals a decline at the top of the bull market and it's a market rotation since energy is not in high demand. Putin's declaration of war against "shallow american oil industries" has been another important ingredient in this perfect storm and the ban on airline travels put a nail in the coffin here. The bond yield curve has been shifting for a while and this signals a migration from stocks into safe havens. The corona virus was the triggering element that spooked investors, and not by the virus itself, but by the way this emergency has been managed. This was neglected at first and there was not a proactive response from the administration, what we see now it's a problem that has overwhelmed the response capabilities and has started to put several industries to a halt.

The lack of clarity, transparency and honesty are another problem. Trump has been belittling the crisis, and he hasn't delivered the adequate response to it. Markets look for clarity and accuracy, but unfortunately Trump has a bad relationship with the truth, after over 16,000 misleading or false statements in his administration, his credibility is something that doesn't help at all at this time when truth and clarity are mostly needed. You may be or not a Trump fan, but if you're reading this, then you are interested in the stock market, so the actions taken by this administration which will determine if there will be a recovery or if this administration who has been boasting the stock market as its main indicator of success will deliver not only a failed market but also an economic recession.

The definition of a Bear market is a market that has lost +20% from the highest level, which is defined as the bear territory, but not necessarily a bear market. A bear market needs to proof a series of lower lows and lower highs. The next high will define this. I am bullish , not for the long term, but for the leg on the upside after the slingshot effect due to the short squeeze as soon as this market finds a support level , that's why my rating is bullish . When this leg will be exhausted I will reevaluate my rating.

Good Luck and Safe Trading !